New polls reveal Melton would elect a Reform MP if residents voted today

The change in voting patterns was indicated at the county council elections in May when Reform UK claimed both Melton Mowbray town seats, with victories for Andrew Innes (Melton East) and Kerry Knight (Melton West).

The Conservatives had held all four Melton area seats at County Hall but they are now down to just two – Joe Orson (Melton Wolds) and Bryan Lovegrove (Belvoir).

In the county as a whole, Reform UK claimed political control of the council – albeit with three seats shy of a majority – as the Tories dropped from 42 councillors to only 15.

Now, a new YouGov poll reveals continued success for Nigel Farage’s party with large parts of the county turning turquoise for the first time ever, if residents voted now.

Based on current voting intentions, YouGov found Reform UK would be the big winners locally, seeing four brand new MPs elected out of the 10 local seats.

They would be predicted to take Edward Argar’s Melton and Syston seat, Mid Leicestershire (Peter Bedford) and South Leicestershire (Alberto Costa), from the Conservatives, and North West Leicestershire from Labour’s Amanda Hack.

Labour would match its three-seat position from last year’s election, but with changes as to which constituencies it would take.

Loughborough and Leicester West would be held by Jeevun Sandher and Liz Kendall, respectively, if they were to stand again, but Leicester South would return to the Labour fold after voting Independent in 2024.

The Conservatives would drop from six seats across the city and county to just two – Shivani Raja’s Leicester East post and Neil O’Brien’s Harborough, Oadby and Wigston constituency being their only wins.

Meanwhile, Luke Evans’ Hinckley and Bosworth seat would be taken by the Liberal Democrats under current voting intentions.

These predictions match wider expectations across the country.

Were a poll to be held tomorrow, YouGov found the outcome would topple the UK’s historic two-party state system.

Mr Farage’s party would come out ahead with 271 seats, putting them some way ahead of Labour on 178, but not hitting the 326 MP threshold for a majority.